How to predict the future

There has been a lot of discussion about the future. Specifically, a lot of that discussion has been based on statistics and anecdotes – the past.

If predicting the future were based on the past. Prognostication would become merely a matter of extrapolation. As Rob Enderle correctly observed, in periods of great change, you can’t look forward by looking back. If we could, we would not be here. The answers would be obvious.

When you can’t see clearly in the crystal ball, you need a new strategy. I suggest frameworks.

Frameworks don’t rely on specifics (i.e. paper or blogs or phones). Frameworks are infrastructure that support large-scale needs (i.e. customers want create, share, inform, transact, form community). I think the discussion could use some insights from sociologists, cognitive psychologists and futurists. These people understand people’s needs, desires and behaviors. As Alan Webber said: Good companies get on the same side as the consumer.